Indian economy expected to grow 7%: How GDP forecasts changed in 3 years

The average variation in value added is 1.5 percentage points between the first and last estimates

Ishaan Gera New Delhi
Indian economy, GDP

A closer look at GDP variations also indicates the directions of these revisions and the factors contributing to these variations

On January 6, India released its first estimate of the full-year real gross domestic product (GDP), which represents the value of goods and services produced in the economy adjusted for inflation, projecting a 7 per cent growth over the last year. However, a Business Standard analysis indicates that GDP may undergo a full percentage point revision once the final numbers are released after three years.
On the output side, there are higher variations as the gross value added can undergo an average 1.5 percentage point variation from the first advance estimate to the final.
Analysis shows that in 2020-21, the difference between the first advance estimates and the first revised estimates (the fourth iteration of GDP released a year after the first release) was 1.9 percentage points. While the first advance estimates had projected a deceleration of 6.7 per cent, the first revised numbers indicated a 4.8 per cent contraction in GDP numb

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First Published: Jan 25 2023 | 10:11 PM IST

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