Adani Enterp. 2534.05↓-10.30(-0.40%)
Adani Ports 737.50↑10.65(1.47%)
Apollo Hospitals 4640.45↑30.55(0.66%)
Asian Paints 3137.40↑9.00(0.29%)
Axis Bank 929.80↑2.85(0.31%)
B P C L 361.70↓-2.60(-0.71%)
Bajaj Auto 4618.50↑2.55(0.06%)
Bajaj Finance 6932.05↑27.55(0.40%)
Bajaj Finserv 1449.55↑10.40(0.72%)
Bharti Airtel 821.25↑3.30(0.40%)
Britannia Inds. 4575.25↓-20.95(-0.46%)
Cipla 956.25↑4.90(0.52%)
Coal India 246.10↑4.60(1.90%)
Divi's Lab. 3477.85↓-36.15(-1.03%)
Dr Reddy's Labs 4556.25↑25.30(0.56%)
Eicher Motors 3711.45↑21.10(0.57%)
Grasim Inds 1713.30↑25.00(1.48%)
H D F C 2690.55↑39.95(1.51%)
HCL Technologies 1126.20↓-13.00(-1.14%)
HDFC Bank 1635.50↑19.70(1.22%)
HDFC Life Insur. 579.05↑1.85(0.32%)
Hero Motocorp 2776.90↑31.75(1.16%)
Hind. Unilever 2650.30↓-2.05(-0.08%)
Hindalco Inds. 419.90↑6.35(1.54%)
ICICI Bank 948.15↓-2.55(-0.27%)
IndusInd Bank 1284.95↑16.90(1.33%)
Infosys 1314.40↓-3.05(-0.23%)
ITC 449.10↑5.50(1.24%)
JSW Steel 702.20↑0.50(0.07%)
Kotak Mah. Bank 1953.20↑8.15(0.42%)
Larsen & Toubro 2224.55↑6.10(0.27%)
M & M 1330.15↑48.30(3.77%)
Maruti Suzuki 9333.50↓-66.45(-0.71%)
Nestle India 21729.45↑147.70(0.68%)
NTPC 176.30↑1.80(1.03%)
O N G C 159.00↓-4.75(-2.90%)
Power Grid Corpn 234.50↓-2.80(-1.18%)
Reliance Industr 2520.60↑14.10(0.56%)
SBI Life Insuran 1218.10↑22.35(1.87%)
St Bk of India 595.00↑9.00(1.54%)
Sun Pharma.Inds. 968.45↓-1.45(-0.15%)
Tata Consumer 794.25↑4.55(0.58%)
Tata Motors 521.45↑3.00(0.58%)
Tata Steel 108.45↑2.05(1.93%)
TCS 3320.35↓-8.55(-0.26%)
Tech Mahindra 1114.05↓-0.70(-0.06%)
Titan Company 2812.25↑70.10(2.56%)
UltraTech Cem. 7840.55↑118.70(1.54%)
UPL 690.00↑1.90(0.28%)
Wipro 399.80↓-1.90(-0.47%)

India's Q3 GDP numbers: Testing growth guardrails

One minus is that aggregate private sector capex participation will lag, barring few sectoral pockets

Premium

5 min read Last Updated : Feb 28 2023 | 11:04 PM IST

One needs to be mindful of two aspects while interpreting Q3 FY23 growth numbers. The pick-up in activity was back-ended in 2020 and 2021 as lockdowns/curbs at the start of the year were eased through the next few months, lifting output by end-year, in effect posing considerable base effects to the December 2022 quarter. Add to that, Revised Estimates for the past two years were released concurrently, influencing the historical quarterly trend.

In this regard, the Revised Estimates for FY22 GDP growth was raised by 40 basis points (bps) to 9.1 per cent, in essence lifting the comparative base versus FY23. The FY21 print was also increased by 90 bps to -5.7 per cent. Absolute numbers

(in rupee terms) for Q3 FY21 were also revised up a notch. Against this backdrop, the actual real GDP growth for Q3 FY23 at 4.4 per cent was a small miss compared to our forecast. Growth relative to pre-Covid level (Q3FY20) stands at 12 per cent increase in Q3 FY23.

Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www-business-standard-com-nalsar.knimbus.com or the Business Standard newspaper