US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sits down with her Chinese counterpart Wednesday in the highest-ranking contact between the two countries since their presidents agreed to look for ways to improve relations that have grown increasingly strained in recent years.
Yellen's first face-to-face meeting with Vice Premier Liu He comes as the US and Chinese economies grapple with differing but intertwined challenges on trade, technology and more.
The Chinese economy is reopening after a COVID-19 resurgence killed tens of thousands of people and shuttered countless businesses. The US is slowly recovering from 40-year high price inflation and is on track to hit its statutory debt ceiling, setting up an expected political showdown between congressional Democrats and Republicans. The debt issue is of keen interest to Asia, as China is the second-largest holder of US debt.
There is also the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which continues to hinder global economic growth and has prompted the US and its allies to agree on an oil price cap on Russia in retaliation, putting China in a difficult spot as a friend and economic ally of Russia.
And high interest rates globally have increased pressure on debt-burdened nations that owe great sums to China.
A wrong policy move or a reversal in the positive data and we could see the global economy head into a recession in 2023, said Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Centre. Both countries have a shared interest in avoiding that scenario."
The World Bank reported last week that the global economy will come perilously close to a recession this year, led by weaker growth in all the world's top economies including the US and China. Low-income countries are expected to suffer from any economic downturns of superpowers, the report said.
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High on the list is debt restructuring, Lipsky said of Wednesday's talks. Several low-income countries are at risk of debt default in 2023 and many of them owe large sums to China.
Leaders have been trying for two years to get some agreement and avoid a wave of defaults but there's been little success and one reason is China's hesitancy. I expect Yellen to press Liu He on this in the meeting, Lipsky said.
Liu laid out an optimistic vision for the world's second-largest economy in an address Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
If we work hard enough, we are confident that in 2023, China's growth will most likely return to its normal trend. The Chinese economy will see a significant improvement, he said.
After her stop in Switzerland, Yellen will travel to Zambia, Senegal and South Africa this week in what will be the first in a string of visits by Biden administration officials to sub-Saharan Africa during the year.
Zambia is renegotiating its nearly USD 6 billion debt with China, its biggest creditor. During a closed-door meeting at the Africa Leaders Summit in Washington in December, Yellen and Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema discussed the need to address debt sustainability and the imperative to conclude a debt treatment for Zambia, according to Yellen.
The Zurich talks are a follow-up to the November meeting between President Joe Biden and China's Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. The two world leaders agreed to empower key senior officials to work on areas of potential cooperation, including tackling climate change and maintaining global financial, health and food stability. Beijing had cut off such contacts with the US in protest of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan in August.
We're going to compete vigorously. But I'm not looking for conflict," Biden said at the time.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be traveling to China in early February.
Among economic sticking points, the Biden administration blocked the sale of advanced computer chips to China and is considering a ban on investment in some Chinese tech companies, possibly undermining a key economic goal that Xi set for his country. Statements by the Democratic president that the US would defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion also have increased tensions.
And while the US Congress is divided on many issues, members of the House agreed last week to further scrutinise Chinese investments.
New House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California has identified the Communist Party of China as one of two longterm challenges for the House, along with the national debt.
There is bipartisan consensus that the era of trusting Communist China is over, McCarthy said from the House floor last week when the House voted 365 to 65 with 146 Democrats joining Republicans to establish the House Select Committee on China.
Last year, the US Commerce Department added dozens of Chinese high-tech companies, including makers of aviation equipment, chemicals and computer chips, to an export controls blacklist, citing concerns over national security, US interests and human rights. That move prompted the Chinese to file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organisation.
Yellen has been critical of China's trade practices and its relationship with Russia, as the two countries have deepened their economic ties since the start of the war in Ukraine.
On a July call with Liu, Yellen talked frankly" about the impact of the Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the global economy and unfair, non-market economic practices, according to a US recap of the call.
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