With intelligence sources in the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) pointing to the possibility of a spring offensive by the Russians against Ukraine, much of the debate has focused on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s hesitancy over delivering Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Kyiv, the internal differences within the transatlantic alliance over supplying Ukraine more advanced offensive weaponry, and the escalatory risks of doing so. Either way, it is becoming clear that a prolonged war — it’s been 11 months today — is likely to be harmful not just to the combatants but to the global economy. The world, still to recover fully from the Covid-19 pandemic, has already felt the inflationary impact of sharply rising fuel and food prices, partly as a result of Europe’s switch to West Asian supplies to reduce its overwhelming dependence on Russia. As things stand, the signals for peace appear to be weak, with neither Russia nor Ukraine nor t