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On February 1, a leading business daily headlined its main front page story “Economic Survey sees FY24 GDP growth slowing to 6.5 per cent”. It was not strictly inaccurate, since the January 6 first advance estimates by the National Statistical Office (NSO) had projected 7 per cent growth for FY23. Nor would it be surprising given the near-recessionary conditions expected in much of the world in FY24.
However, a more careful examination of the official national income data shows that the Survey’s 6.5 per cent growth projection for FY24 constitutes a major acceleration over the 4.3-4.4 per cent growth projected by the NSO (and Reserve Bank of India, separately) for the latter half of FY23. This is because the NSO had