With the increasing global economic uncertainties, the commerce ministry is looking at fixing this fiscal year's export target in a range instead of a single figure, an official said.
To set the target range, a detailed study on 200 countries and 31 commodity groups is in the process, the official said.
The target range would depend on parameters such as the USD 1 trillion merchandise exports target by 2030; import to GDP ratio of importing countries; export to GDP ratio of India that will tell the potential and past trends.
"We are not fixing any export target as a figure. In fact, my team has done an exercise, where we are saying that let us talk in terms of range. In the best scenario, the exports can be this much and in the worst scenario, it can be this much," the official said.
For a monitoring purpose of exports every month, the official said a fixed number would be required and that could be a mid-value or an average may be accepted.
The ministry has though fixed an internal target which has been to export promotion councils and Indian missions abroad.
"But we will take some more time before we will come up with our exports targets because based on the current trends, it can not be right on our part to fix those targets as of now, so we are waiting and watching," the official added.
A trade expert said that in 2022-23, India's merchandise exports were USD 450 billion, so the lower band of new target range could be USD 451 and even if one assumes a 10 per cent growth in 2023-24, then the upper band of the range could be around USD 495 billion.
In April this year, apex exporters body Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said that they are targeting to take the shipments to USD 500-510 billion during the current financial year.
India's exports contracted by 22 per cent, the steepest decline in the last three years, to USD 32.97 billion in June on account of global demand slowdown, especially in the Western markets like the US and Europe.
Cumulatively, exports dipped by 15.13 per cent to USD 102.68 billion during April-June this fiscal.
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