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The monsoon arrived in Kerala on Thursday seven days after its usual onset date of June 1, which, according to some reports, is the longest delay in four years.
A delayed monsoon is, however, no indication of the trajectory the rains will take in the coming months. In the first eight days of this year, rain in the country has been almost 60 per cent less than normal. A late start to the monsoon could delay the sowing of major kharif crops such as paddy, oilseeds, and pulses.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest weather update, said the monsoon had advanced into remaining parts of South Arabian Sea and some parts of Central Arabian Sea, the entire Lakshadweep area, most parts of Kerala, some parts of south Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of the Comorin area, the Gulf of Mannar, and some more parts of southwest, central and northeast Bay of Bengal on June 8.
It said in the past 24 hours, cloudiness had increased over the Southeast Arabian Sea and there had been widespread rainfall in Kerala.
The Met said conditions were favourable for the monsoon advancing into more parts of the Central Arabian Sea, the rest of Kerala, some more areas of Tamil Nadu, swathes of Karnataka, more parts of the Southwest, Central and Northeast Bay of Bengal, and regions of Northeastern states during the next 48 hours.
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In mid-May, the IMD said the monsoon might arrive in Kerala by June 4.
The monsoon arrived in the southern state on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019, and May 29 in 2018. India is expected to get normal rain during the season, notwithstanding the evolving El Niño weather conditions, the IMD had said earlier.
Northwest India is expected to see normal to below-normal rain. East and Northeast, Central, and the South Peninsula are expected to receive normal rain at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm. According to the IMD, rain between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm is considered “normal”.
Less than 90 per cent of the LPA is “deficient”, 90-95 per cent “below normal”, 105-110 per cent “above normal”, and more than 100 per cent “excess”.
The monsoon is critical to India’s agriculture, with 52 per cent of the net cultivated area relying on it. It is also critical in replenishing reservoirs, vital for drinking water, apart from power generation across the country.
Rain-fed agriculture accounts for about 40 per cent of the country’s food production.
