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Gift Nifty hints gap-up open, check key levels; Q4 nos, FII flows in focus

Stock market preview Monday, April 29: Gains in global peers and healthy Q4 earnings so far likely to help Sensex, Nifty start the holiday-shortened week on a positive note. UltraTech Cement Q4 today.

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Rex Cano Mumbai

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Pre-market commentary for April 29, Monday: Indian equity benchmark indices will be looking forward to a positive start to the holiday-shortened trading session on the back of strong Q4 earnings so far. The Indian stock market will be shut for trading on Wednesday, May 01, on account of Maharashtra Day holiday.

Globally, the news flow has been wobbly; hence investors need to be attentive to the same. The upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting on May 01 can act as a major trigger for the markets worldwide.

At 07:00 AM; Gift Nifty futures quoted around 22,650, indicating a likely gap-up of over 50 points on the NSE benchmark index.

According to the BS Research Bureau, a total of 178 companies had declared their results till Saturday (April 27) and reported a sales growth rate of 13.2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), taking aggregate revenue to Rs 9.1 trillion, its highest in the last four quarters.

ICICI Bank stock is expected to react to its Q4 results announced on Saturday. The private lender reported 17 per cent YoY growth in net profit at Rs 10,707 crore, while NII (Net Interest Income) rose 8 per cent YoY to Rs 19,092.80 crore. 
 
On Monday, Can Fin Homes, eMudhra, Gillette India, Jana Small Finance Bank, Kfin Technologies, KPIT Technologies, PNB Housing Finance, Poonawala Fincorp, Rossari Biotech, Shoppers Stop, Spandana Sphoorty  Financial, Tata Chemicals, Tips Industries, Trent, UCO Bank and UltraTech Cement are among 35 companies scheduled to announce March quarter earnings.

Technical outlook on the Nifty, Sensex & Bank Nifty

Vaishali Parekh, vice-president - technical research at Prabhudas Lilladher expects the Nifty and Sensex to trade in the range of 22,000 – 22,800 and 72,500 – 75,000 this week. The analyst expects the bias to remain positive as long as the Nifty sustains above its 50-DEMA level of 22,150.

The key support for Bank Nifty stands at 47,300, with potential upside targets at 49,000 and 49,500 in the near-term, Vaishali points out.

Rajesh Bhosale, technical analyst at Angel One, recommends that despite Friday's setback, the market still maintains its bullish undertone and one may adopt a 'buy on dip' strategy. 

Rajesh sees immediate support for the Nifty around 22,300, which coincides with the 20-EMA, followed by the pivotal support of the bullish gap around 22,200.

FIIs continue to sell

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have now net sold stocks worth Rs 36,933 crore, the highest since January 2023 in a single month, with two more trading sessions to go. In January 2023, FIIs had net sold stocks amounting to Rs 41,465 crore.

"The trigger for this renewed FPI selling is the sustained rise in US bond yields. The 10-year bond yield now stands at around 4.7 per cent which is hugely attractive for foreign investors.", said Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services in a note.

The latest core CPI inflation in the US jumped to 3.7 per cent against the expectation of 3.4 per cent. This means the prospects of early rate cuts by the Fed are receding. This will keep yields high triggering more FPI outflows in both equity and debt, Vijayakumar added.

In terms of market impact, the Nifty had slipped 2.5 per cent in January 2023 amid the FII sell-off. However, so far this April, the Nifty holds a monthly gain of 0.4 per cent.

On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) are net buyers of shares to the tune of Rs 42,065 crore so far in April 2024.

Global cues

Taiwan was up 1.3 per cent, and Kospi 0.7 per cent so far on Monday. Straits Times, however, was down 0.2 per cent. Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a trading holiday today.

Last Friday, the US market ended higher, with Nasdaq soaring 2 per cent on the back of a tech-led rally. The S&P 500 gained 1 per cent, and Dow Jones added 0.4 per cent. The US stock futures were up 0.3 per cent in post market trade.

Among the key commodities Gold futures consolidated around $2,330 levels, and Brent Crude Oil around $87.50 levels.

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First Published: Apr 29 2024 | 7:12 AM IST

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