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ICICI Bank to report Q4 results on April 27; here's what analysts expect

ICICI Bank Q4 results preview: Analysts said ICICI Bank's margin trajectory and outlook, and deposit traction will be among the key monitorables

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Nikita Vashisht New Delhi

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ICICI Bank Q4 results preview: Private lender ICICI Bank is scheduled to report its January-to-March quarter (Q4) results for financial year 2023-24 (FY24) on Saturday, April 27.

Analysts, however, have varied expectations from the bank with net profit growth estimates ranging from 4.6 per cent to 17 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y).

They said margin trajectory and outlook, and deposit traction will be among the key monitorables.

Here's a brief on what the brokerages expected from ICICI Bank's Q4FY24 results:

At the higher end of the estimates comes this brokerage's numbers. It expects ICICI Bank to post net profit of Rs 10,540 crore, up 16 per cent Y-o-Y from Rs 9,121.9 crore profit posted in Q4FY23.

Sequentially, it would be 3 per cent higher over net profit of Rs 10,271.5  crore posted in Q3FY24.

Operationally, net interest income (NII) is seen rising 8 per cent Y-o-Y and 2 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 19,010 crore. Core pre-provision profit, meanwhile, could increase 6 per cent Y-o-Y and 1 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 14,710 crore.

BNP Paribas
On the contrary, BNP Paribas expects ICICI Bank's net profit to rise barely 4.7 per cent year, translating to a decline of 7 per cent Q-o-Q, to Rs 9,551.6 crore.

NII and PPoP, it said, may rise around 6 per cent each to Rs 18,798.9 crore and Rs 14,666.6 crore, respectively.

NII was Rs 17,666.8 crore in Q4FY23 and Rs 18,678.6 crore in Q3FY24.

Equirus Securities
Equirus expects ICICI Bank to post robust growth in advances and deposits at 19 per cent and 17 per cent Y-o-Y. Loan growth, the brokerage said, could be driven by the retail segment.

It, however, expects net interest margins (NIMs) to decline by 10bps Q-o-Q to 4.3 per cent in Q4FY24 from 4.4 per cent in Q3FY24.

It pegs net profit at Rs 10,571.9 crore, NII at Rs 18,850.9 crore, and PPoP at Rs 14,967.5 crore.

"Key things to look for will be comments on trends in housing loan business as well as Capex cycle, expected growth, and trends in retail non-performing assets (NPAs)," it said.

Kotak Institutional Equities
Analysts at KIE expect PPoP to grow at 3 per cent Y-o-Y/-3 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 14,287.4 crore, led by weak NII growth (NIM compression cycle underway).

Loan growth, it said, should be healthy at 17 per cent Y-o-Y, led by the contribution from all segments (slowdown primarily in unsecured loans).

"We expect provisions (Rs 1,491.1 crore; down 8 per cent Y-o-Y/up 42 per cent Q-o-Q) to remain low as we see lower slippages, given the current economic environment. We are building in slippages of 2 per cent (Rs 5,000 crore). Key concern would be the progress of NIM as cost of funds is yet to peak, especially with slower CASA growth. Deposit mobilisation is likely to be another key area of discussion," Kotak Institutional Equities said in a results preview report.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services
MOFSL expects ICICI Bank's deposits to jump around 17.4 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 13.86 trillion in Q4FY24. Loans, on the other hand, may surge 18 per cent on year to Rs 12 trillion.

On the asset quality front, the brokerage bakes in flat gross and net NPA ratios, on Q-o-Q basis, at 2.3 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively

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First Published: Apr 26 2024 | 12:53 PM IST

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