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Market outlook June 14: Mixed global cues, long weekend may weigh on Nifty

All you need to know before the stock market opens on Friday: Technical analysts expect Nifty to make a decisive directional move soon. These are the key levels to watch out for on the NSE benchmark.

NSE, national stock exchange, nifty50

Rex Cano Mumbai
Pre-stock market update for Friday, June 14, 2024: The Sensex and the Nifty are likely to start Friday’s trading session on a tepid note amid mixed cues from global peers. Market may witness some profit-taking owing to the extended weekend factor.

Equity market in India will be closed for trading on Monday on account of Bakri Id holiday.

At 07:00 AM, Gift Nifty futures quoted around 23,390 levels, indicating a likely flat start to the trading action on the Nifty 50 index.

Global mood

Overnight, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended at record highs, up 0.2 per cent and 0.3 per cent, for the fourth straight trading session as technology shares remained supportive. Dow Jones, however, dropped 0.6 per cent.

The US 10-year yield quoted declined to 4.239 per cent. Among commodities, Gold futures quoted around $2,320 per ounce, while Brent Crude Oil remained steady around $82 per barrel.

Markets, in the Asia-Pacific region, traded on a mixed note. The Australian equity benchmark indices– the S&P ASX 200 and All Ordinaries slipped up to 0.4 per cent each. Japan’s Nikkei too was down 0.4 per cent, while Kospi and Taiwan gained 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively.

Fund flow action

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers of stocks worth Rs 3,033 crore on Thursday; whereas, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net sold shares to the tune of Rs 554 crore.

In the derivatives segment, FIIs index long-short ratio rose to the highest level since May 29 to 0.86. The FIIs net index shorts now stand at 53.66 per cent as against 87.13 per cent on May 30.

Trading strategy for Friday, June 14 - Should you be a buyer or seller today? Here’s what market experts recommend:

Ashwin Ramani, Derivatives & Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities

The Nifty failed to decisively close above the 23,400 level yet again on Thursday. The Call writers (Bears) ward off a threat from the put writers (Bulls) at the 23,400 Strike in Nifty. Significant call writing was also observed at the 23,500 Strike in the Index for the second consecutive day. The option activity at the 23,500 Strike will provide cues about Nifty’s direction in the coming days.

The Bank Nifty broke past the 50,200 level, but eventually ended 48 points lower 49,847 yesterday.  Strong call writing was observed at the 50,000 Strike in Bank Nifty for the second consecutive day. The call writers (Bears) have sizeable positions at the 50,000 Strike and the option activity at this strike will provide cues about Bank Nifty’s upcoming direction.

Om Mehra, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities

The short-term trend for the Nifty is expected to remain neutral to positive unless the 23,200 level is breached. A pullback to the 23,270-23,300 range would present a buying opportunity while breaking above 23,500 could push the index closer to 23,650.

The Bank Nifty once again failed to cross the 50,250, considered as hurdle and was dragged below the 50,000 mark. The immediate support remains at 49,530; if breached, the index could fall towards the 49,200-49,100 range. The contracting hourly Bollinger band indicates a large movement is expected in the coming sessions.

Neeraj Sharma, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates

Technically, the Nifty on a daily scale has formed a bearish belt hold pattern. As per this pattern, if the index sustains below 23,350, then profit booking is expected. On the downside, immediate support for the Nifty is placed near 23,000, followed by 22,720, where the 34-Days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) support is placed.

The Bank Nifty index has formed a bearish Marubozu candlestick pattern following the formation of a tri-star doji, indicating weakness. On the downside, immediate support for the index is placed near 49,000 levels, where the 21-DEMA is placed."

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities

The Nifty has been consistently flat for the last four days, indicating a pause before a sharp move. The direction of this move is not yet known, at least not before any directional breakout. From here, a decisive move above 23,500 might lead to the covering of call writing, which could take the index higher towards 23,800. On the lower end, support is placed at 23,300, below which the index might weaken.

Stocks to watch

Cement: Shares of cement companies, mainly Ambuja Cements and Penna Industries, are likely to be in focus after Adani Group’s Ambuja Cements said it would acquire Hyderabad-based Penna Cement Industries at an enterprise value of Rs 10,422 crore. READ MORE

Vodafone Idea: In its bid to partially clear outstanding dues, the telecom company has decided to offer an Rs 2,458 crore stake to long-term vendors Nokia and Ericsson by way of preferential issue of equity shares. READ MORE

Stocks in F&O ban today: GMR Infra, Hindustan Copper, India Cement, SAIL and Sun TV are in the F&O ban period on June 14. Meaning, traders will not be allowed to take fresh positions at these counters in the F&O segment, only squaring of existing positions shall be allowed. Any fresh position created in these F&O stocks shall attract penalty.

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First Published: Jun 14 2024 | 7:13 AM IST

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